Deal or No Deal?

Caption for photo:
"There is no abstract art. You must always start with something. Afterward you can remove all traces of reality."
--Pablo Picasso
It’s fairly easy to imagine traces of reality being removed from the photo above.

Quote of the day:
“One-fifth of the people are against everything all the time.”
--Robert Kennedy

Promotion:
I’ve had requests for more about movies, so watch for that in coming days.

Followup to my entry "Trend, We Hardly Knew Ye":
“You have to think about the tremendous changes that are taking place in the media landscape. The pace of change over the next five years is going to dwarf the pace of change over the last 50 years and we’re going to have to get out in front of it.”
--Jeff Zucker, chief executive of NBC Universal’s television group

Jeff, Jeff, Jeff. I know you are trying to convince your bosses and investors that you are totally on top of the situation. But let’s not get all hyperbolic and hyperventilatory.

Certainly the media landscape is changing, as it has changed consistently and inexorably over the last 50 years. (I would extend that to the last 100 years.) Certainly there will be some significant and even fast change over the next five years. But I think your "bold” statement above is what will be “dwarfed.”

One thing to consider is that often we mistake short-term fads for ongoing trends. It's like thinking that your popular show "Deal or No Deal" is more than a short-term phenomenon. I love the show, by the way. It's excellent, very lightweight entertainment that gets me to thinking about probabilities and the vagaries of chance.

Now "The Office," there’s a trend. It's fine and very funny, consistently. And it works because it is incisively knowing, well written, expertly acted and very carefully edited. It knows when to stop, and has no laugh track. These characteristics give the show staying power. These characteristics have always defined great shows, and they will continue to define great shows. No matter what the medium.

Another thing to consider is that, virtually every time someone like you makes a prediction, the time frame turns out to be much longer than they predict. Certainly we will all be downloading movies and TV shows into our homes. But when? Certainly we will all be gaining access to TV shows through menus rather than schedules. But when? Certainly internet and TV content will be joined together. But when?

I will bet that, five years from now we will have seen incremental change in all three of these areas. But the “media landscape” will be 95% the same.

Deal or no deal?