Video: Lightning Strikes House in Dallas

Video: Object of the Week

America's Number One Issue

Quote of the day:
“Ignorance in the United States is not just bliss, it’s widespread. A recent survey of teenagers by the education advocacy group Common Core found that a quarter could not identify Adolf Hitler, a third did not know that the Bill of Rights guaranteed freedom of speech and religion, and fewer than half knew that the Civil War took place between 1850 and 1900.”
--Bob Herbert in yesterday’s New York Times.

Quote of the day no. 2:
“When I compare our high schools with what I see when I’m traveling abroad, I am terrified for our work force of tomorrow.”
--Bill Gates

Education is one of our “been there, done that” issues. We hear statements like those of Bill Gates and columnist Bob Herbert and we think, “Yeah, yeah, ok. We’ve heard this before about a gazillion times. I guess we just can’t do anything about it.”

And it seems we really can’t. We just keep getting stuck in the political mud. Significant change in our schools requires both more funding and consensus. Both of these have proved impossible so far.

More funding is impossible because there is nowhere for that funding to come from. There are too many other urgent spending priorities, and raising taxes is politically unpopular.

Consensus is impossible because of long-standing entrenchment of three groups: reform-minded administrators, teachers and activist parents.

The only way any of this will change is if we can free ourselves from the mud in which we are stuck.

What is the mud? It is us. It is our apathy and indifference.

If we were to simply insist on change and take responsibility for it, things would begin to change. There are a number of examples of successful schools that can serve as models.

We can look to them for leadership and help, or we can face the consequences.

Interesting, Unusual Russian Perspective on Democratic Primary

Oil Highest, Dollar Lowest

Quote of the day:
“ There is scarcely anything in the world that some man cannot make a little worse, and sell a little more cheaply. The person who buys on price alone is this man's lawful prey.”
--John Ruskin

I woke up this morning to news that oil is at $119, an all-time high, and that the dollar is at .62 euros, an all-time low.

It sounds like a broken record. Yet what makes this news is the relentlessness of these moves. Oil has been at or around all-time highs for the last four months. The dollar has been at or around all-time lows for more than a year.

There is no sign that either direction will change any time soon. The current surge in the oil price is partly due to a disruption in the supply coming from Nigeria. This is a short-term effect, which means that oil’s price will likely back off a bit after a while.

But the key words in that sentence are “a bit.” As always, there will be choppiness in oil prices. One day the price will be down a few dollars, the next week it will be up a few dollars. Or vice-versa.

But it is untenable to suggest that oil prices are “going back down.” Yes, in the short term, they probably will. The long-term trend, however, is inexorably higher. And eventually MUCH higher, as China’s and India’s economic development continues to accelerate.

Indeed, we are headed for an oil crisis in the coming years. There will come a point when world oil production cannot possibly keep up with both current needs and the needs of millions of new drivers and hundreds of new industrial companies. We don’t know when this crisis will happen, but it will happen.

The dollar will keep sinking as long as the primary direction of interest rates is down. A very weak currency is part of the price we pay to give ourselves cheap credit to buy what we want, and to help prevent businesses from having to scale back.

Everything has a price. Everything has a consequence.

Another Primary Day

Quote of the day:
“ The reason lightning doesn't strike twice in the same place is that the same place isn't there the second time.”
--Willie Tyler

Well, at long, long last, today is the Pennsylvania primary. Watching the news these last few weeks, it sometimes seems as if nothing else is going on nationally.

The voting patterns will be interesting to watch. It’s possible for Barack Obama to pretty much have the nomination sewed up. Most likely, though, we’ll continue to see continuing mini-dramas until election day in November. That’s 6 1/2 months from now. Oh, boy.

I really hope some entertaining things happen, because the issues are getting a little tiresome.

That sounds ridiculous, but I mean it. All three of the candidates have developed positions on just about everything meaningful. Sometimes their proposals are detailed and very insightful. And very necessary.

The tiresomeness comes from incessant repetition, and from efforts to be very certain and increasingly precise in forecasts and calculations. Any level of precision in knowing how much something will cost, or what the effects of any proposal might be, is impossible for any candidate.

Doing this is very difficult for those whose job it is to manage the government. Hearing someone running for President say emphatically that either tax cuts or any program is going to be paid for through cutting “waste” (or “pork-barrel spending”) or some other manipulation of the budget is a stretch at best.

Yet all three candidates are doing this, because it’s what they think we want to hear. Maybe some of us do.

What is very, very clear is that the Iraq war costs something like $200 million a day. And interest on the national debt costs us about $650 million a day. We are much deeper in debt than we were seven years ago.

I’ve heard just one of the candidates talk about this.

But is this trend going to change?

Oh No, I'm Part of a Trend

Quote of the day:
“It's like some vast aerial city with people walking briskly to and fro on catwalks, carrying picnic baskets full of nutritious snacks.”
--Nicholson Baker, talking about Wikipedia

A funny thing has been happening to me the last few weeks. I have barely read the newspaper.

The daily paper has been an integral part of my life since college, where we were assigned The Washington Post as part of the journalism program. For many years Merrie and I subscribed to four newpapers--The Los Angeles Times, the San Diego Union-Tribune, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.

Now we’re down to just two--the Southern California ones. Very few days have ever gone by when I haven’t read through at least one paper.

But a while back I began spending my morning newspaper time online, mostly reading from a variety of news sources. The best news sources online tend to be the newspaper sites--many of them are very good indeed.

Like you I’ve been reading for years about the decline of newspapers. The fall in daily circulation accelerated just over the last 12 months. Fewer than 30% of those under 30 read a daily paper.

I never, never imagined myself to be part of this decline. I guess I have always held on to the tradition and romance of print journalism.

I’m not sure I’m jettisoning this tradition just yet. We’ll see. But it sure is fun to travel among newspapers and other sources every morning--and maybe catch up on some other things too.

Video: Object of the Week

Video: Cogent Analysis of How the Media Covers Politics

The New Ed Sullivan Show

Quote of the day:
“During the Nineties, and again in the wake of September 11, 2001, I was struck more than once by a perverse contemporary insistence on not understanding the context of our present dilemmas, at home and abroad; on not listening with greater care to some of the wiser heads of earlier decades; on seeking actively to forget rather than remember, to deny continuity and proclaim novelty on every possible occasion. We have become stridently insistent that the past has little of interest to teach us. Ours, we assert, is a new world; its risks and opportunities are without precedent.”
--Tony Judt, in the May 1 New York Review

In the 1960s, just about all of America gathered around the TV on Sunday nights to watch The Ed Sullivan Show.

In 2008, just about all of America gathers around the TV on Tuesday nights to watch American Idol.

AI is an extraordinary phenomenon. In a fragmented TV universe, it is a mass-audience program, drawing tens of millions of viewers a week and dominating the TV ratings.

In some significant ways, it is very much like the variety programs of TV’s first three decades. It features live and unscripted performances, a host and some regular “guests”--the panel of judges.

The interactions among these people and the contestants is a vital element of the show, as is the ever-present theme of the making of a pop star. Added to this is the weekly drama of who will be voted off the competition. The show is widely talked about among friends and coworkers.

It’s fascinating that it has become America’s weekly gathering place, much as Ed Sullivan was some 40 years ago, and Jack Benny was on radio some 30 years before that.

Dualism, Monism

Quote of the day:
“So few members of the public show up to speak on agenda items that decisions often pass on consent...and are never discussed.”
--Reporter Alison St. John, talking about San Diego County Board of Supervisors meetings, at kpbs.org

The first place I started thinking about dualism was in graduate school. It’s too bad it came that late. I think this ought to be taught to kids in elementary school.

Two reasons. First, it’s a simple idea to grasp. Second, this idea underlies how we are usually taught to see the world, so being aware of it is essential to the development of critical thinking and a full spiritual life.

Dualism means the world is divided in two, as in yes/no, up/down, right/left, right/wrong, here/there, good/evil, man/woman, light/dark, alive/dead, fast/slow, begin/end, winner/loser, rich/poor, body/spirit, dude/nondude and so on.

We don’t see dualism. Yet it is implicit and embedded in virtually every culture and family.

It underlies every disagreement, conflict and war. It also underlies continuing and profound ignorance. All we need to do is divide things into the proper categories, and then we don’t have to think anymore.

We think dualistically because it is easy, and because it seems logical. After all, there is either being or nothingness. Right? And some things are right, while others are wrong. Right?

RIGHT?? HELLO! RIGHT???

No, wrong.

Just kidding.

Philosophically speaking, nothingness is inherent in being and vice-versa. That is, there is no being unless there is simultaneous and co-located nothingness. One cannot exist without its self-contained opposite, at the same instant and in the same place.

Same for right and wrong. It doesn’t mean that right and wrong don’t exist. Rather it is about how they exist.

A strong case can be made that the power of what Jesus taught came from his insight into this. Later, Paul may have been the one to “dualize,” especially dividing flesh and spirit and heaven and hell.

All this came up for me because of an article I read that was written by an atheist. Unlike most such articles (and those of fervent or fundamentalist believers), it is not simply an exercise in ridiculing or belittling.

With evangelical religion being so present in the political life of our nation and the world over the last several years, it’s natural that an equally dualistic backlash develops.  It is rare to come across a thoughtful response.

I encourage you to read this for some interesting thoughts on why dualistic, rules-based religion has been so important to so many in our culture.

China is Becoming a Superpower, With Our Help

Quote of the day:
“China was in decline for 300 years and then around 1978 Deng Xiaoping said, ‘OK, let’s find something new.’ He reintroduced entrepreneurship and capitalism to a country that has had a long, long history of both. In China they save and invest more than 35% of their income; in America we save less than 2%. The Chinese work from dawn to dusk. When they come to work, they don’t say, ‘How many holidays do I get?’ They want to live like we do in America and they are willing to work hard, save and invest for the future.”
--James B. Rogers, in today’s Barron’s

Ok. Let’s all have a moment of panic about China.

AAAAAAleadpaintAAAGGGGGGjobsGGGGGHHHHHHbadpetfoodHHHHHHwewon’tbenumberoneHHHHHHtheydon’tspeakEnglishHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!

Good. Now that we’re done with that, let’s talk.

There’s been lots of attention over the last week to protests surrounding the Olympic torch route. Fervent Free Tibet supporters have been vocal and sometimes aggressive, not heeding the Dalai Lama’s call to keep the peace.

Simultaneously there have been strong protests against China’s ongoing human-rights abuses.

These protesters make very important points. China certainly does need to heed the wishes of the people of Tibet. And there’s no doubt their human rights record is spotty.

What concerns me is that these two valid issues are simply added to what some see as a growing list of reasons that China is a sinister menace. And while we engage in the latest anti-Chinese hysteria, the real, long-term ramifications of its emergence as an economic superpower are ignored.

Because of their rising power, they are able to buy American debt (that is, dollars). We get worked up about this and then use part of our home-equity loan to go to Best Buy and get a flat-screen TV, made in China. That home-equity loan might also be owned by China.

In other words, we fret and worry about China’s growing ownership of American assets and then we drive to the post office to mail a few to them. We borrow from them to buy their products.

China’s influence and economic power are growing. They will one day have more economic influence than us. Why? Because their population is more than three times ours.

Historically, the majority of China’s population has been agrarian. Now that has changed, and more than half live in urban areas. And as still more and more people get engaged in China’s growing commercial and industrial base, this trend will accelerate.

There’s no need to panic. There is a need to be aware of and to understand.

They're Back!

Quote of the day:
“I agree with the governor, it's a complete waste of time. For those people against same-sex marriage, all I can say is that they should get a life. I'm too damn busy working, trying to pay my bills, and just survive in this economy to worry about something that in no way affects me.”
--jfawcett1, leaving a comment this morning at signonsandiego.com

A good week, this.

Merrie is feeling good and getting lots of sleep. She had a routine trip to our doctor who confirmed she was doing fine, and recommended more rest.

Also, resident and migratory birds are hanging out here. The trees are louder than usual this time of year. There are mockingbirds nesting nearby, and a bevy of happy finches, sparrows, hummingbirds and doves.

A huge red-shouldered hawk regularly watches over the canyon from a perch just on the other side.

To top it off, the first migratory grosbeaks showed up this morning. Always a big event.

There’s a ground squirrel who appreciates the bird-feeder overflow, and seems to enjoy the sound of German Shepherds barking at him.

Now if we could just have a brief talk with the car-mirror-obsessed starling roosting in our driveway.

Beautiful Day for A Wet Roll in the Dirt

Quote of the day:
“Even the best of friends cannot attend each other's funeral.”
--Kehlog Albran, "The Profit"

The four of us went for a long walk on Fiesta Island at 3 this afternoon. The temperature was about 78 with a bright sun and an ocean breeze. A perfect day.

There were very few people and dogs there. Most folks were at work or engaged in Friday-afternoon responsibilities.

I thought about that a little as I watched Sophie tear into the water and out again, with Sherman herding her back to us. I was glad to be where I was.

Video: Object of the Week

No End in Sight

Quote of the day:
“Online input, offered in real time from legions of customers, is beginning to make traditional focus groups seem old-school.”
--AP, yesterday

Statistic of the day:
Average daily number of insurgent attacks in Iraq:
July 2003: 16
May-July 2007: 161
--Brookings Institution

The news right now is that General Petraeus is saying that we should not remove any troops from Iraq until the fall.

USA Today has published a compelling graphic with both individual information and compiled statistics about the 4,000 soldiers killed in Iraq. I highly recommend it.

At the Washington Nationals’ home opener, President Bush was loudly booed from the stands--and it wasn’t just a few cranky loudmouths. We’re talking thousands of people booing the president of the United States.

I’m a fairly respectful person. I know it’s hard to believe, but I am. If any other president in my lifetime had been booed at a baseball game, I would’ve been embarrassed--and I would consider it disrespectful. No matter how I felt about that president’s policies.

I was not embarrassed when Bush was booed, and I was surprised at myself. I never thought I’d lose respect for a president.

This is not because I disagree with the Iraq war or any other policy. It is rather because of the way this presidency has been conducted.

Specifically, this administration has repeatedly neglected or ignored good, reliable information when making decisions. It’s as if the decision is made first, and then information backing it up is cherry-picked from various sources.

If there weren’t such dangerous and deeply tragic consequences from these decisions, this would be merely ridiculous. But this is beyond arrogant. It is blithely, ignorantly cruel and deadly.

This has now been proven time and again, with many different decisions involving many different people. The case began to be made in 2004 in National Security insider Richard Clarke’s excellent book “Against All Odds,” detailing the flawed and ideological thinking after 9/11 that resulted in the Iraq war.

Since then, there has been a steady stream of former administration, military and CIA officials who have spoken of presenting detailed on-the-ground information about a situation to the president, only to have it ignored--sometimes not even read.

The documentary “No End in Sight” presents this very clearly. The film was not made as an anti-Bush polemic. It made very effort to be fair and objective--efforts that were made difficult by the refusal of several senior administration people to even be interviewed.

It is an excellent documentary, but I do have to pass along a warning. When I watched it, I found myself gradually becoming literally enraged watching highly-experienced intelligence and diplomatic people be cavalierly ignored, with the result being nothing but increased chaos, suffering and death.

That is why, for the first time in my life, I can watch thousands of Americans boo the president at a baseball game and not be embarrassed or ashamed.

Instead, I’m embarrassed and ashamed the rest of the time.

Just Six Weeks Until Memorial Day

Quote of the day:
“Four decades after the murder in Memphis of a friend of the working man—a hero who was always being denounced by the FBI for his choice of secular and socialist friends and colleagues—the national civil rights pulpit is largely occupied by second-rate shakedown artists who hope to franchise ‘race talk’ into a fat living for themselves.”
--Christopher Hitchens, in yesterday’s Slate

It’s time for another burst of work. Spring breaks are done. Memorial Day is six weeks away, and summer another three after that.

Now it’s the old nose to the grindstone, and work hard to find ways to escape to Starbucks or even to that long-delayed dental appointment.

I’m fascinated by the rhythm of the work year--how most everyone seems to be on about the same schedule of work during several periods each year. These are the times when the freeways are really clogged at rush hour, food stores are jammed after five and people are generally tired and cranky. The beach is clear as far as the eye can see.

The most-intense work bursts are several. The worst is mid-September through October, which includes very heavy business travel and conference scheduling in October. It’s relieved by Halloween, which has become a much-more-important holiday over the last ten years. That is followed by gradual “loosening” as Thanksgiving and Christmas approach, with the latter bringing on serious partying.

Early January through mid-February is tough. In addition to the grindstone we have to deal with darkness and cold. That’s why we need both Presidents’ Day weekend and Valentine’s Day. After that, there’s a gradual easing until spring break, which continues and accelerates as summer approaches.

In between these work periods there are long-weekend times off or weeklong times when we’re officially at work but the mood is not work. An example is the week between Christmas and New Years. The week before Labor Day also qualifies. In fact, all of summer really qualifies. Think about it--what serious work conferences are held in the summer?

It seems we lurch among three modes: working long hours and like crazy, taking time off and convincing ourselves how deserving we are, and sort-of working while pretending that we are still working long hours and like crazy.

Maybe it would serve all of us better if we could simply integrate work and rest better. But I guess we are too obsessed and self-deluded for that.

It’s the old story of seeing ourselves as much more indispensable than we are.

Why Are Stocks Stronger Now?

Quote of the day:
“The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.”
--William Butler Yeats

The stock market goes down, the stock market goes up. It’s hard to make sense of it. Many people just give up and don’t worry about it. Others give up and do worry about it.

In reality, there is a bit of logic to the movement of the market.

I guess the clearest part of things is why stocks were down early this year. More and more bad economic news was coming out each day.

But why are they stronger now? There has been no letup in the stream of negative news. Two reasons.

One is the release last week of bad unemployment numbers. This is usually interpreted as an indication we’re much closer to the end of a recession than the beginning. Investors are always trying to see what will be happening in six to nine months. In this case, they looked out and saw the probability of a stronger economy then than now.

The other reason is much more basic, and usually ignored in financial reporting. It’s the Al Pacino/Godfather 3 effect. The money goes out, and it has to come back in.

Realizing this has really helped me over the years. When the stock market goes down--and especially when it goes down sharply--I ask myself where that money is going. Is it permanently going into another kind of investment? In most instances, no.

Instead, the money is put into treasury securities--like this time--or other short-term low-risk low-return investments. In other words, the money is “parked,” waiting to come back in. It may take a few days, a few months, even a year or two, but the money will come back.

Where does the money wind up? It always winds up where investors think they will get the highest return. It doesn’t stay parked.

A lot of money came out of the market and into short-term treasuries over the last three months. Does it makes sense to think that investors are going to be perfectly satisfied watching that money earn 2% or less? Not for long.

UCLA, UNC, NYET, NYET

Quote of the day:
“To achieve the impossible dream, try going to sleep.”
--Joan Klempner

Tell the truth, Didn’t you think we’d be watching UCLA play North Carolina for the NCAA championship?

Not only were both defeated in the semifinals, but both were soundly defeated. Both Memphis and Kansas ran onto the court ready ready to play, play fast and win.

It’s amazing how both UCLA and North Carolina looked hapless by comparison.

2001: A Space Odyssey

Quote of the day:
“Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it.”
--Andre Gide

Today is the 40th anniversary of the release of “2001: A Space Odyssey,” one of the most influential, important and controversial movies of all time.

When it came out, there was a huge buzz about the film, and people flocked to it. Many of those people came out of theatres shaking their heads and saying “huh?”

Stanley Kubrick’s “2001” is rightly celebrated for its groundbreaking special effects. But its plot and narrative style are highly unconventional and will always leave a lot of people baffled or bored.

There’s been a ton written on the movie’s possible symbolism and meaning, including in this very long but entertaining exchange. In other places, critics and viewers, while admiring the special effects, have been skeptical about the film itself. It’s been dismissed as ponderous, pretentious and opaque.

I saw “2001” shortly after it was released. I was amazed by the visuals, and blown away by the music. But I had no idea what it was about.

In the 1980s Merrie and I rented the VHS and watched it on our 19-inch RCA TV. We were bored out of our skulls--we turned it off before it was over. We realized much later than the film depends on both the immensity and subtlety of its visuals and its soundtrack. Thus it is impossible to grasp on a small grainy screen with a tinny-sounding speaker.

In truth, “2001” is a great work of art. Think about it. All great works of art are both highly affecting and subject to ongoing interpretation. Rarely do artists explain what their work means, once and for all.

I think it’s clear that the film does contain allusions to both Nietzsche’s “Thus Spake Zarathustra” and Homer’s “Odyssey.” Kubrick points to the former by using Richard Strauss’ “Also Sprach Zarathustra” as the movie’s theme. As for Homer, “Odyssey” is part of the movie’s title, so that’s not exactly a stretch.

A key to the film is that the dialogue is sparse and banal. That’s because the movie is not about our relationships with each other.

What is “2001” about? I’m not sure anyone can say definitively. Sure, it’s about our relationship with technology. But it’s also about our relationship with everything else.

To me, it is about the scope of human life and development in the context of an incomprehensibly vast universe--a universe so vast that it contains other lives beyond our imaginings.

It’s the hugest theme possible for a movie.